|
October 25, 2004 12:45 AM
Well, following up on yesterday's entry . . . Florida is clearly the most deadlocked of all states in the polls. Three separate polls concluded late last week show Florida evenly split between the two candidates. A fourth shows Bush up by a point, and a fifth shows Kerry up by a point. These polls show from 3 - 7 percent still undecided in Florida. Ohio is a total wild card. The four polls completed at the end of last week show: 6 points Kerry, 5 points Bush, 6 points Kerry, 4 points Bush . . . with 4-7% undecided. electoral-vote.com forecasts that the undecideds will tip the balance in both states to Kerry. electionprojection.com is calling Florida for Bush based, it appears, on a 10-day old Mason-Dixon poll giving Bush a 3-point lead (although its hard to say because poll sources aren't cited, so I'm just making an educated guess that this is the data source). electionprojection.com also puts Ohio in the Bush column even though the polls average out to an exact tie. But his model leans a couple points toward Bush based on the fact that Ohio was a Bush state last year and Bush currently has a slight advantage in nationwide polls. The trend in both states has been increasing support of Kerry and decreasing support of Bush. Will these trends continue? Also, it looks like no polls were released this weekend for these two key states, and the candidates have been hard at work. I wonder if Monday will bring any surprises? |
||||
|
|